Bird flu may seem like an odd topic for ACCESS to cover, but the economic ramifications of an outbreak of bird flu in the United States are just too high for us to ignore.

Here is a little history on the state of the disease, what can be expected, and what you can do to protect yourself economically.

First of all, the term bird-flu may be a bit off. That’s because flu actually originated in birds. The term really refers to strains of flu that are new and can only be passed from one bird to another. At some point, these flu strains mutate; first gaining the ability to be passed from a bird to a human, and eventually being able to be passed from one human to another. When this happens, these strains can be extremely lethal to people. This how pandemics begin.

Flu pandemics have happened before. In 1957 and 1968, there were relatively small pandemics. But in 1918, the Spanish Flu became the most deadly disease in history. It killed between 30 and 40 million people worldwide. In the United States there were 675,000 deaths; 200,000 of these happening in a single month.

Starting in 1997, a new strain of flu known as H5N1 was seen in birds in Hong Kong. This strain had some disturbing characteristics. First, it was 100% fatal to the birds that contracted it. Second, it had the ability to be passed from birds to humans. And finally, more than 50% of the people who have contracted the disease have died from it.

Authorities in Hong Kong were able to contain the disease in 1997, but it reappeared in 2003 and containment may no longer be an option. Between 2003 and late 2005, the disease infected more than 140 people in China, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia, killing more than 70 of them. But in October of last year, H5N1 migrated out of Southeast Asia and arrived in Turkey. And the Turkish version of H5N1 has mutated in a way that makes it much more infectious to humans.

Starting about three weeks ago, Turkish children began getting the disease. In that time, it has killed five of them. And about two weeks ago, wild birds in the Ukraine were also found to have the disease. This is extremely disturbing because the Ukraine is considered to be a European country.

Turkey is the first country to experience severe economic consequences as a result of bird flu. The country has a $2.5 billion poultry industry. Since October, sales of poultry products in Turkey are off by 65%, and they continue to fall. The Turkish outbreak has already caused the European Union to ban the importation of Turkish poultry products. And it is also leading to unemployment among those who work in the poultry industry in Turkey.

Now, compare that with a $35 billion poultry industry in the United States and you begin to get the picture.

But the poultry industry is only a small fraction of what can be expected if H5N1 begins to infect the general populations of Europe and North America. Virtually all segments of the economy are expected to suffer. The World Bank estimates that the total cost of such a pandemic will exceed $800 billion worldwide.